Uganda's high rank gives me cause to question the arbitrary and subjective indicators the Failed States Index uses. Does Uganda deserve to be only one spot behind North Korea? Is Uganda more likely to turn into a failed stated than Yemen, Burundi, East Timor, Congo, Liberia or Sierra Leone (none of which are even in the top 20)? I have my doubts... How do you decide if Belarus is more likely than Georgia to 'fail'? And other than the obvious examples of states that are in the actual process of failing, what does a list like this really hope to accomplish?
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Those rankings also gave me a doubtful pause. I respect that magazine, its approach, its perspective and its thoroughness; but I found it hard to believe that my own lived sense of the stability of some of the countries on that list was so out of harmony with the official rankings.
Do you think they are raising flags about Uganda primarily because of the likelihood of a Kenya-like, nation-splitting, violent struggle for power following Museveni's inevitable withdrawal from power?
Or do you think it is because of all the pressure that Uganda is suffering because of its unstable neighbors?
There seems to be a lot of political discontent here if you dig a bit below the surface. From the sound of it, there was a fair amount of coercsion and unrest during the last election. Also, there is still
The north is also very unstable due to the millions of IDPs and potential for LRA attacks, and there is a ton of banditry in Karamojang to the east (so much so that aid workers travel in armed conveys with flack jackets and helmets).
That said, I still do not feel Uganda should rank anywhere in the top 20...
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